Over the past five years, Iga Swiatek has been nearly inseparable from the women’s draw at Roland-Garros. The Polish player has lifted the trophy in Paris four times, but her semifinal loss at the Olympics on the same Philippe Chatrier court seemed to shake her. A full year has passed since her last tournament win. Her dominance, especially on clay, has faded. The title race no longer revolves around a single name. This spring, Swiatek dropped to No. 5 in the WTA rankings, a sharp shift from the untouchable status she held not so long ago.
One of the top threats to Swiatek this year is world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarusian has admitted more than once that clay isn’t her ideal surface, but her motivation remains high. She lost the final at the Australian Open, a tournament she had won the previous two years. Naturally, she’ll be aiming to bounce back at the second Grand Slam of the season. In early May, she claimed a big win on clay by taking the title in Madrid for the third time, calling it a birthday gift to herself. Sabalenka may brush off her coaches during matches, only to have them return at the next event with fly swatters in hand. The light-hearted mood in her team doesn’t change the fact that she puts in serious work, both in competition and in practice.
Russian fans will be watching Mirra Andreeva and Diana Shnaider closely in both singles and doubles. Andreeva has already won two WTA 1000 titles this season. Shnaider’s consistent results have brought her close to breaking into the top 10. Both looked strong in Madrid and Rome. Shnaider pushed Swiatek and Paolini to three sets, and Paolini went on to win her home tournament. Andreeva reached the quarterfinals twice but was stopped each time by Coco Gauff, an opponent she hasn’t yet been able to solve. Gauff and Paolini met in the Rome final, where Gauff finished as runner-up at a second straight WTA 1000 on clay. If she can improve her serve and reduce double faults, her game will become more well-rounded. As she put it, quoting Daniil Medvedev, it’s better to lose two finals than to go out in the first round. Paolini, now a Rome champion, will also be among the serious contenders in Paris. Last year, she was just one win away from taking the title.
Mental strength could be just as important as form. The French crowd can be difficult, and whistles or boos are not uncommon when a local player faces a top seed. Whoever stays calm and focused in that atmosphere may end up with the trophy. Roland-Garros begins on Sunday, May 25. The women’s champion will be decided on June 7.
