Sixteen teams have begun their pursuit of the Larry O'Brien Trophy, battling across courts in the United States—and Canada. We've taken a close look at every first-round matchup to see who's in control, who's capable of pulling off an upset, and who's simply happy to have made it this far.
Can the Oklahoma City Thunder repeat last year's success? Which team poses the biggest threat in the Western Conference? And who is the true favorite in the East?
Here's our complete first-round playoff preview.
Detroit (1) vs. Orlando (8)
Every playoff bracket has a few series with a clear favorite, and Detroit is certainly one of them.
The Pistons dominated the regular season, developed outstanding chemistry, and boast one of the league's deepest rosters. On paper, they hold a significant advantage.
That doesn't mean Orlando can't make things uncomfortable.
With Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs back from injury, the Magic finally have their full rotation available. After comfortably dispatching Charlotte in the Play-In Tournament, they've earned the right to challenge the East's top seed—and they'll do everything they can to make this series competitive.
Prediction: Detroit in six games (4-2).
Boston (2) vs. Philadelphia (7)
Philadelphia had little trouble surviving the Play-In, making quick work of Orlando.
Now comes a much tougher test.
Boston enters the playoffs healthier and stronger, with Jayson Tatum returning just in time for the postseason.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, will have to navigate the series without Joel Embiid—a loss that dramatically weakens their chances.
During the regular season, the Sixers occasionally succeeded in slowing Boston's pace and dragging games into half-court battles.
But those meetings came early in the year.
The playoffs are a completely different environment, and it's difficult to imagine Philadelphia taking more than a single game.
Prediction: Boston in five games (4-1).
New York (3) vs. Atlanta (6)
This is where things start getting interesting.
Atlanta caught fire during the second half of the season, and CJ McCollum has transformed the Hawks' starting lineup into one of the NBA's most efficient units.
New York's starters, surprisingly, haven't produced quite the same numbers. Despite the star power, the Knicks have occasionally struggled with their offensive structure.
Even so, New York deserves to be favored.
Why?
Depth and rebounding.
Those two factors often decide playoff series, and the Knicks hold clear advantages in both areas. If they continue dominating the glass the way they did during the regular season, they'll eventually wear Atlanta down.
Prediction: Knicks in seven games (4-3).
Cleveland (4) vs. Toronto (5)
Cleveland had one of the league's strangest regular seasons.
The Cavaliers looked excellent against weaker opponents but frequently struggled whenever they faced teams closer to their own level.
Even acquiring James Harden before the trade deadline didn't completely solve those issues.
If Cleveland approaches the playoffs with the same inconsistency, Toronto could easily steal this series.
The Raptors have one concern of their own.
Much of their regular-season success came from the second unit, particularly the combination of Jamal Shead and Sandro Mamukelashvili, who routinely overwhelmed opposing benches.
That advantage tends to disappear in the playoffs, where rotations shrink considerably.
Prediction: Cleveland in six games (4-2).
Oklahoma City (1) vs. Phoenix (8)
These teams faced each other five times during the regular season, thanks in part to the NBA Cup.
Phoenix won twice.
Everything else belonged to Oklahoma City.
One meeting ended with the Thunder winning by an astonishing 49 points.
OKC rolled through the regular season like a steamroller. There was a brief slowdown in the middle of the year due to injuries and a dip in form, but once healthy, they resumed flattening opponents with remarkable consistency.
Now everyone is back.
Everyone is healthy.
And everyone appears to be peaking at exactly the right time.
It's hard to envision Phoenix slowing them down.
Prediction: Thunder sweep the series (4-0).
San Antonio (2) vs. Portland (7)
Don't be surprised if this turns out to be more competitive than expected.
All three regular-season meetings were relatively close, although Victor Wembanyama missed two of them.
At full strength, Portland has enough size to make life difficult for San Antonio's superstar.
Still, the Spurs have simply been better throughout the season.
Wembanyama has fully arrived as one of the NBA's elite players, and the supporting cast around him is significantly stronger than it was a year ago.
Portland should make the series respectable—but probably not much more than that.
Prediction: San Antonio in five games (4-1).
Denver (3) vs. Minnesota (6)
On paper, this may be the most entertaining matchup of the opening round.
Two elite teams.
Two MVP-caliber superstars.
Two organizations with recent playoff history.
Despite that, Denver enters as a fairly clear favorite.
Nikola Jokić finally has the kind of supporting cast capable of carrying games whenever he isn't forced to do everything himself.
Minnesota simply can't match Denver's depth.
The Timberwolves have also been inconsistent all season, with their key players rarely sustaining peak form for extended stretches.
Denver won three of the four regular-season meetings, and there's little reason to expect the balance of power to suddenly change.
Prediction: Denver in six games (4-2).
Lakers (4) vs. Houston (5)
The Lakers' hopes of making another deep playoff run have been severely damaged by injuries to Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves.
Without them, Los Angeles simply lacks enough offensive firepower.
LeBron James remains capable of extraordinary performances, but asking him to carry an undermanned roster through an entire playoff series feels unrealistic.
The Lakers still own home-court advantage.
It probably won't matter.
Houston finished the regular season playing excellent basketball and enters this matchup with considerably more depth and overall talent.
Prediction: Houston in six games (4-2).
